‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Constricts India's Cooking-Gas Stock.
People wait in lines to buy cooking gas cylinders for domestic use in an urban center.
The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's kitchens.
As military actions on Iran hinder energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.
Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in restaurant kitchens.
"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply cannot be found," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most food outlets run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are switching to coal and wood and induction stoves to keep their operations going."
Localized Effects
In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already completely or partially closed as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.
A eatery in a southern city which has closed its doors due to a scarcity of LPG.
Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."
Retailers note a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Authority's View
Yet, the government maintains there is no shortage.
India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and authorities say supplies are being reallocated to households as conflict-related stress from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.
About six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the conflict.
The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".
"Some panic booking and accumulation has been triggered by misinformation. The regular refill period for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.
Widening Concern
Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.
India brings in up to 90% of the crude it consumes, leaving it significantly susceptible to problems in worldwide shipments.
According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.
India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.
Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern
The real vulnerability is LPG, commentators observe.
India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.
Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.
In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.
An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.
"Retailers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."
For now, India's energy imports may be protected by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.