Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
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